There has been a lot in the news lately, including mass firings, deportations, and the unbelievable Trump/Vance/Zelenskyy shout out match in the White House. How will the American public react?
This market will resolve based on the net approval rating (approval - disapproval) reported by 538 (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/) on March 22nd. It's currently (March 1st) sitting at +0.7%.
Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:
The market will resolve based on the absolute net approval rating reported by 538 on March 22nd (and not the change from March 1st).
Comparison operators are strictly applied; values exactly equal to 3% or -3% do not count as meeting the criteria.
Update 2025-03-08 (PST) 538 was unfortunately shut down last week. I've looked at Nate's approval page as a potential substitute, as it seems closest in spirit to 538. Unfortunately, the numbers are fairly different, so I'd have to do questionable math to make it closer to 538.
With that in mind, I intend to resolve the market as N/A. I'll wait until Monday to gather feedback.
1,000