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MANIFOLD
Will any US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers before 2027?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ40
Dec 31
59%
chance

Resolves YES if: Before January 1, 2027, any U.S. state imposes a legally binding, statewide moratorium or pause — lasting at least 3 months or indefinite — on either (a) permitting/approval of new hyperscale or AI data centers, or (b) new large-load data center interconnections to the electric grid.

Terms:

Qualifying instruments: state statute (signed into law), governor’s executive order, or a binding public utility commission order applying to all major investor-owned utilities in the state.

“Statewide” = applies across the state or to substantially all new hyperscale development in it. County/municipal moratoria do NOT count regardless of how many exist.

Carve-outs (e.g., exempting projects already permitted, or facilities under some MW threshold) are fine as long as the pause covers the bulk of prospective new hyperscale capacity.

Does NOT count: suspension of tax incentives alone, study commissions without a binding pause, voluntary utility pauses on connection requests, or bills passed by one chamber.

Effective date can be in 2027; enactment/issuance must occur in 2026.

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