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MANIFOLD
Will Anthropic's first-day IPO pop beat SpaceX's (+19.2%)?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ20
Nov 30
42%
chance
  • Resolves YES if ANT's official Nasdaq close on its first regular trading day is more than 19.22% above the final IPO price, i.e. close > 1.1922 × IPO price. That bar is $83.46 at a $70 pricing, $88.22 at $74, and $92.99 at $78.

  • Resolves NO otherwise. If ANT hasn't completed a first session by Nov 30, resolve N/A.

  • Close: 4 pm ET on the first trading day, with a Nov 30 backstop.

  • Benchmark: SpaceX's June debut is the reference: a $135 offer price turned into a $160.95 first-day close.

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