Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Anthropic's market capitalization 30 calendar days after its first day of public trading is higher than its launch market capitalization (after the first day). Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

For the purposes of this market:

• Launch market capitalization is defined as the valuation calculated using the method below, after the first trading day has closed. For example, the SpaceX IPO was at 1.77 trillion USD, but they had reached a valuation of 2.1 trillion USD after the first trading day.

• Market capitalization 1 month after is defined as the market cap on the 30th calendar day following the first day of public trading (or the closest preceding trading day, if the 30th day falls on a weekend or market holiday). This will be calculated using the closing share price on that day multiplied by the total outstanding shares, as reported by Yahoo Finance or Bloomberg.

• If Anthropic does not complete its IPO by August 31 2027, this market will resolve to N/A. I will extend the close date if needed before then.

Background

Anthropic, an artificial intelligence safety and research company founded in 2021 by former OpenAI executives, confidentially filed for an IPO on June 1, 2026. Following a Series H funding round in May 2026 that valued the company at approximately $965 billion, Anthropic has begun preparing for a public listing.

With reports indicating that the company's IPO target valuation could reach between $1 trillion and $2 trillion, this market tracks whether public market demand will sustain or increase the company's valuation during its first 30 days of trading relative to its first day price.