Will the United States of America be composed of exactly 50 states by 2030?

107

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Ṁ650

2030

83%

chance

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If the number of states in the United States of America increases or decreases any time before January 1 2030, this market shall resolve to 'NO'.

e.g. if Washington DC or Puerto Rico become a state, the market shall resolve to 'NO'. If Texas secedes from the USA officially, the market shall resolve to 'NO'.

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What if, the entire United States agrees to dissolve, then another country, a new country, same territory, also called, "The United States of America," re-starts, new constitution, but also happens to have 50 states (not necessarily in the same location)? Mind you, this is not the same country, this would be like the Federal Republic of Germany forming after WW2 - a completely new State.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

What if Texas secedes from the USA at exactly the same time as DC becomes a state?

@Yev Market will still resolve to 'YES' if on January 1, 2030 the quantity of states in the Union is exactly 50.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Jetbat Does that mean that, even is DC or PR become states, you will wait until 2030 to resolve it in case some states are removed from the union?

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan Says "any time beforehand" in the description, which implies no. That does contradict the title though...

@IsaacKing I think the market creator is saying that it will resolve NO if the number of states isn't 50 at any time before Jan 1 2030. If Texas secedes exactly when DC becomes a state, then that doesn't change the number of states at that time. If DC becomes a state and nothing else happens, the market immediately resolves NO, it doesn't wait to see if Texas'll have seceded by 2030.

predicts YES

@Conflux Right, and that contradicts the title and Jetbat's comment above, which I assume is why Joseph was asking.

@IsaacKing I don't see what the contradiction is?

predicts YES

@Conflux The title checks the number of states in the US at the beginning of 2030. The description cares about whether the number ever changes before 2030.

If Texas stops being a state in 2026 and then starts being a state again in 2028, the market resolves YES as per the title, but resolves NO as per the description.

@IsaacKing I guess according to a strict reading of the title, the US has exactly 50 states and it’s before 2030, so it should resolve YES now! I was therefore implicitly applying a double negative, which I guess I should’ve said - I was treating it as “Will the US never not be composed of exactly 50 states by 2030?”