This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:
-Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire
-The next Pope is Black
-The Fed cuts rates
-India invades Pakistan
-Israel or US military action against Iran
Copied from Polymarket and will likely resolve the same, however I will reserve final judgment in case of subjective/controversial resolution
https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-may?tid=1746186632251
Update 2025-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the condition "The next Pope is Black":
This condition will be met if the next individual elected as pope is widely and credibly identified as Black (based on the linked Polymarket market criteria).
For example, Cardinal Tagle would likely not count unless there is good reason, such as if he identifies as Black.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,046 | |
| 2 | Ṁ467 | |
| 3 | Ṁ121 | |
| 4 | Ṁ105 | |
| 5 | Ṁ24 |
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yeah unless there’s good reason (he identifies as black, for example), Tagle wouldn’t count for this market. Quoting Polymarket rules “market will resolve to "No" if the next individual elected as pope is widely and credibly identified as Black.”
@Jessef0226 also I suppose the question also remain whether there has been a black pope before but nothing to do with this market, just realized I was assuming too much