Will interplanetary colonization be economically profitable before 2200?
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predicts NO

How does it resolve if humanity is not anymore, or if it is replaced by AI that does not care about other planets?

@Irigi Good question––didn't think of distinguishing that. I suppose as long as some entity or species is using the planets for their resources or information, and exchanging these resources/information with some from another planet, it can be considered interplanetary trade/interaction. So if we are exterminated but some form of AI manages to go out and colonize Mars; and if they develop some productive interchange with machines back on Earth, it is resolved as a YES. If they remain isolated and simply exist on multiple planets, it's perhaps debatably a NO as it's not really colonization but simply migration. Not sure on that.

Regardless, if no one is living on a planet, or if no one cares, there would probably be no definition by which we could consider it colonization, much less profitable. I'll note that we can't simply aim at mining a planet in the same way we mine oil in the middle of the ocean. We have to be effecting true colonization––meaning moving towards self-sustainability, long-term inhabitants, and so on. We don't have to YET have a fully self-sustained colony for colonization to be considered profitable; but it does have to be a colonization endeavor which brings a profit.

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