MANIFOLD
How long will Trumps state of the Union speech be?
17
Ṁ200Ṁ737
Feb 25
0.9%
Under 60 minutes
4%
60-75 minutes
7%
75-90 minutes
11%
90-105 minutes
18%
105-120 minutes
32%
120-135 minutes
16%
135-150 minutes
10%
150+ minutes

Resolution criteria

The speech is scheduled for Tuesday, February 24, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the official delivery time recorded by C-SPAN or the Congressional Research Service's American Presidency Project, measured from when Trump begins speaking until he concludes. The time measurement includes applause interruptions and any off-script remarks. Resolution sources: C-SPAN State of the Union archive or The American Presidency Project.

Background

Trump's five previous addresses to a joint session of Congress have each run at least an hour, with his March 2025 speech running nearly one hour and forty minutes as he frequently went off script. Trump's speeches have averaged more than an hour and 20 minutes in length. For historical context, since 1964, the average length of State of the Union addresses by each president has ranged between 35 minutes and 85 minutes.

Considerations

It is a good bet that his speech will go long, and that he will stray from his prepared remarks. The timing measurement includes all applause and interruptions, which can add 10-15 minutes to the total delivery time depending on congressional response.

Market context
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