Contingent on Harris winning the election, will Elon Musk engage in election denialism or disinformation campaigns?
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Market resolves to N/A if Trump wins the election.

What counts as 'election denial' or 'disinformation' will be subjective, but would likely include:

  • Tweets or public statements questioning the official results

  • Tweets spreading untrue claims about the election process, election laws, etc.

  • Tweets alleging irregularities in cases where there are no irregularities

  • Vague accusations of 'Something isn't right' or 'This looks fishy'

  • Retweets of accounts doing any of the above

  • Replies like "concerning" to accounts doing any of the above

Engaging in any of these activities will result in the market resolving to 'Yes'.

Conversely, if Musk clearly and concisely states that he thinks the election was fair and the result is valid, that will likely result in the market resolving to 'No'. If Musk makes such a statement AND tweets things similar to the above, I will use my subjective best judgment to determine whether his overall actions constitute election denial or disinformation.

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For retweets of accounts doing any of the above, does it have to be those accounts doing it in the retweet, or is it sufficient that he retweets an innocuous tweet from an account that also engages in election denial?

He would need to RT specific election denial posts. RTing an unrelated post from an election denial account would almost certainly not meet the threshold.

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