Will Trump make any successful recess appointments to his cabinet in 2025?
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25%
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Resolves to YES if Trump is allowed to make any successful recess appoints to his cabinet in 2025.
I will use my best judgement to decide whether it is a successful appointment or not. An unsuccessful one is where Trump makes a recess appointment and it gets reverted by some other political force soon after.
For context, see https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/11/trump-senate-administration-hearings
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Note, it looks like this is a close duplicate of one of the options here: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-happen-during-trumps-seco
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