I've deliberated on this for a while. On the one hand, I don't know Yev and I'm not inclined to marry them. However, there is ~255 mana profit to make on this market and ~240 mana profit to make off my market re: whether someone will accept a marriage proposal. Plus the good story.

But, I feel ethically opposed to lying without good reason. So to not lie AND to bid yes, I would need to do so credibly (at least to the standard of my conscience), knowing that if Yev broke their word that they would not marry me regardless of their answer, I would need to have full intentions of proceeding with the marriage.

So I had a long discussion with my girlfriend of 4 years (we celebrated our anniversary yesterday). At first she was confused as to why I would want to accept the marriage proposal from a stranger. Somehow the profit motive of 500 mana (i.e., equivalent of $5 of donations) didn't stand for itself as sufficient rationale for my actions. I explained that the sheer credibility that I stand to gain from an extra 500 or so of mana profit doesn't really have a price. And I promised her that, if I were to marry Yev, I would soon thereafter seek a quick divorce.

She, having been divorced previously, assured me that this is no laughing matter and that there is a lot of paperwork and fees involved. I reminded her that the expected value calculation at stake accounts for the probability that Yev goes back on his word (and also decides to get married), which is probably less than 0.1%. So if you multiply the ~$5 of profit by 1000, it more than pays for the legal fees in the value of counterfactual donations. Plus, I would vie for Yev to lose their "trustworthy-ish" badge - who would wager that just to marry a stranger?

In the end, she rolled her eyes and said she was fine with me accepting the proposal. But I had to buy her a box of ice cream sammies from Trader Joes - the really nice kind. So that lowers the value proposition, but I think it's still worth it.

@Yev , I accept your proposal. And if you break your word, I really will marry you. BUT, before your next move, I want to let you know that my profile picture is AI generated and I don't always look this hot. So please keep that in mind.

@CarsonGale seems risky, I think the badge indicates the user is trustworthy in the making of markets but does it also mean they are trustworthy in the making of marriages?

@Yev How much mana to break your word and marry Carson?

@IsaacKing Currently I stand to gain M$33, which is clearly not enough.

Awfully forward...you don't even want to take me to dinner first??

@CarsonGale not a no 😲

@noumena Not yet - I'm taking my time to consider...it's the first time I've been proposed to, don't want to rush it!

@CarsonGale My grandmother said “I’ll think about it” and waited a week! I assume that running expected value calculations took longer back then.

(Turned out well ❤️)