[EXPERIMENTAL][20x AMPLIFIED ODDS] Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively in the first month after market quiescence?
[EXPERIMENTAL][20x AMPLIFIED ODDS] Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively in the first month after market quiescence?
7
150Ṁ538
resolved Dec 21
Resolved as
7%

This market closes when it reaches quiescence (72 hours with probability moving by at most 1%). This market resolves 30 days later.

If during that month a nuclear weapon was detonated offensively (using the criteria from /jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6843759174bb), this market resolves YES.

Otherwise it resolves MKT with probability 95% and NO with probability 5%.

[Since this market is experimental, I reserve the right to resolve it N/A if this market mechanism is not working]

Close date updated to 2022-11-19 10:15 pm

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2y

@Yev your random number is: 17

Salt: iUZxkPDFSmw9d4WaIhX3, round: 2540436 (signature b00269bd18999e63d8c8a18679e35d5a36467f4aa82cf7b4062d0728d33960fc37d40d26236810822a36a5e341a2d8331247d207e6c2ae0efb29b75fb6aa71396583c08be5b5b0c9a740ddd05d4a6db905aa4c9a69f1b19c533ff86e8643b11b)

2y

@Yev you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2540434 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2540436, salt: iUZxkPDFSmw9d4WaIhX3.

predictedYES 2y

I'll resolve NO if I roll 20 and 7% if roll anything else.

predictedYES 2y

@FairlyRandom 20

predictedYES 2y

This market has quiesced on Nov 18 at 17:17:21 EST. It will resolve YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively by Dec 18 17:17:21 EST.

2y

Suppose the true probability is p and the quiescent market price is q. Then the expected payout is p + (1 - p) * 0.95q. By EMH, this must be equal to q. Therefore q = p / (0.05 + 0.95p) ≈ 20p (where approximation holds if p << 1, which is hopefully the case)

2y

[20x AMPLIFIED ODDS] Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in the first month after market quiescence?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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