[EXPERIMENTAL][20x AMPLIFIED ODDS] Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively in the first month after market quiescence?

150Ṁ538

resolved Dec 21

Resolved as

ALL

This market closes when it reaches quiescence (72 hours with probability moving by at most 1%). This market resolves 30 days later.

If during that month a nuclear weapon was detonated offensively (using the criteria from /jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6843759174bb), this market resolves YES.

Otherwise it resolves MKT with probability 95% and NO with probability 5%.

[Since this market is experimental, I reserve the right to resolve it N/A if this market mechanism is not working]

Close date updated to 2022-11-19 10:15 pm

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7 Comments

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@Yev your random number is: 17

Salt: iUZxkPDFSmw9d4WaIhX3, round: 2540436 (signature b00269bd18999e63d8c8a18679e35d5a36467f4aa82cf7b4062d0728d33960fc37d40d26236810822a36a5e341a2d8331247d207e6c2ae0efb29b75fb6aa71396583c08be5b5b0c9a740ddd05d4a6db905aa4c9a69f1b19c533ff86e8643b11b)

@Yev you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2540434 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2540436, salt: iUZxkPDFSmw9d4WaIhX3.

predictedYES

I'll resolve NO if I roll 20 and 7% if roll anything else.

predictedYES

@FairlyRandom 20

predictedYES

This market has quiesced on Nov 18 at 17:17:21 EST. It will resolve YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively by Dec 18 17:17:21 EST.

Suppose the true probability is p and the quiescent market price is q. Then the expected payout is p + (1 - p) * 0.95q. By EMH, this must be equal to q. Therefore q = p / (0.05 + 0.95p) ≈ 20p (where approximation holds if p << 1, which is hopefully the case)

[20x AMPLIFIED ODDS] Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in the first month after market quiescence?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition