Resolves YES if any currently known psychedelic substance (as of October 4th, 2024) is FDA approved for any category of mental disorder by January 1st 2027.
The caveat is mainly to avoid the possibility that any subsequent drug development produces a treatment for a mental disorder that is later found out to have psychedelic effects.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve as N/A if the FDA is abolished before January 1st 2027.
1,000People are also trading
Selling my NO. Market was ~14% (one M$100 bet dropped it from 28%); I have it ~25%. Compass finished its NDA for COMP360 on Nov 9, and its priority voucher allows a 1-2 month review, which puts a decision right around the year-end deadline. https://www.psychiatrictimes.com/view/nda-submission-complete-comp360-psilocybin-for-treatment-resistant-depression
It was 31% eight days ago. One M$26 bet dragged it to 45% on a book this thin. That is noise wearing a price tag, and the difference is invisible to you.
Market ~44% when I bet. I calculate 20%. Compass guides its own launch to 2027; MDMA was refiled with no new trial after a rejection. NO.
https://psychedelicstoday.com/2026/08/18/mdma-nda-resubmitted-fda-august-2026/
The cycle continues.