Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027? | Manifold

Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027?

4

100Ṁ165

2027

71%

chance

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1W

1M

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https://www.science.org/content/article/fda-rejected-mdma-assisted-ptsd-therapy-other-psychedelics-firms-intend-avoid-fate

Resolves YES if any currently known psychedelic substance (as of October 4th, 2024) is FDA approved for any category of mental disorder by January 1st 2027.

The caveat is mainly to avoid the possibility that any subsequent drug development produces a treatment for a mental disorder that is later found out to have psychedelic effects.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve as N/A if the FDA is abolished before January 1st 2027.

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How does this resolve if there's no longer an FDA?

@WilliamGunn I will resolve N/A if the FDA is abolished.

@JaySocrates Sorry I had to ask!

@WilliamGunn no problem, it's a legit question.

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