Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026? | Manifold

Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?

60

1kṀ27k

Jan 1

40%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The model need not be released

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Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?

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Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

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opened a Ṁ500 NO at 45% order

@Bayesian Limit up at 45% ;)

@BrunoJ i can uh... get a better price if i wait... 😭

opened a Ṁ3,000 YES at 51% order

All it would take is running the IMO model on Frontier Math.

bought Ṁ500 NO

@VinceVatter FrontierMath is orders of magnitude harder than IMO.

@traders 116 days until 2026! is a breakthrough expected over the next 4 months? Given the size of the jump from GPT-4 to GPT-5, I'm not sure why this is at 55%. I'm going to keep buying a little bit more NO every day.

boughtṀ250NO

@BrunoJ Limit up at 50%

@Bayesian I'm a little bit overexposed on this one 😅

filled a Ṁ1,250 YES at 99.0% order

o3-mini got 32% https://openai.com/index/openai-o3-mini/

People are also trading

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

-3% 1d16% chance

Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?

Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?

Which AI company first solves FrontierMath 85%?

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

Related questions

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?

Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?

Which AI company first solves FrontierMath 85%?

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

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