Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

Question

If there is substantial disagreement across sources as to whether global greenhouse gas emissions were lower in 2025 than in 2024, question resolution will defer to Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions

Jan. 2026 edit: I expect this question will be resolvable based on Climate TRACE estimates released on Feb. 26, 2026.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/JaromGordon/will-global-greenhouse-gas-emission-q40c6le2qi)Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve NO based on Climate TRACE data showing global greenhouse gas emissions hit a new record high in 2025 (meaning 2025 emissions were higher than 2024, so the answer to "will 2025 be lower than 2024" is NO - this appears to be the creator indicating resolution to NO).

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Feb 26, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.