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@mods OP is inactive, resolves NO.

https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/will-republicans-shutdown-government?r=gt9u7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Will Republicans Shutdown Government In Part Over Trans People?

As the nation hurtles towards the deadline to pass a new budget, Republicans have added anti-transgender riders to must-pass budget bills, with some drawing a red line.

@JaneBrigham I'm starting to suspect that my interpretation of this question was too strict.

@CollectedOverSpread How do you mean?

@JaneBrigham Essentially, I interpreted "triggered by" as "primarily caused by," however you might define "primarily."

More to the point, I would say that a shutdown in the current circumstances would not suffice for a YES resolution. Is that your interpretation as well?

@CollectedOverSpread Same boat here, but I'm not sure I agree. I figured this market would resolve YES if, eg., CNN's article on the shutdown mentioned transgender policy, rather than an LGBTQ blogger's. "Triggered by" and "the point of disagreement" suggest that it should be a major factor, but, on reread "involves policy around transgender people" undermines that interpretation.

This was sparked by the actions of Tommy Tuberville in the senate blocking appointments to the military over their support for transgender healthcare.