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Will South Africa's PGM output decline exceed 5% YoY in 2025?
1
Ṁ1kṀ40
2027
40%
chance

Resolves YES if South Africa's platinum group metals (PGM) production for the full year 2025 declines by more than 5% compared to 2024, as reported by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) in their official mining production release, typically published in early 2026. This threshold is significant due to South Africa's critical role in the global PGM supply chain, particularly affecting palladium and platinum markets. A decline of this magnitude could tighten global supply and impact prices. The data will be sourced from Stats SA's annual mining production report. Note that this market will consider the total PGM output, not individual metals within the group.

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