This market tracks PGM 6E production at the facility level.
Facility: Impala Platinum operations in South Africa
Basket type: PGM 6E (contains platinum, palladium, rhodium, and other PGMs)
Coverage period: Trailing 12 months (TTM) ending 2026-12-31
Settlement delay: 2 months (observation date = March 1, 2027)
Baseline (2026): 1,302,580 ozt
Data source: Official company production disclosures and quarterly reports
Resolution Criteria
Resolve YES iff: Latest Delayed (2m) Trailing (12m) result for implats_rustenburg_pgm_6e_ttm_ozt as of March 1, 2027 is ≥ 1,302,580 ozt.
If PGM 6E production ≥ 1,302,580 ozt, resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
1,000Impala Platinum's Rustenburg operations sit at the crossroads of opposing market forces. The exclusion of Russian refineries from the London market created an immediate supply shock, with palladium prices jumping 11% [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101800575], theoretically positioning non-Russian producers like Impala to benefit from reduced competition and higher prices. However, South Africa's mining sector reported a 9.6% production decline in February [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103298800], raising concerns about operational capacity. For Impala's Rustenburg facility, achieving 2027 production targets will depend on whether management can overcome sector-wide challenges to capitalize on favorable palladium fundamentals.