This market tracks PGM 6E production at the facility level.
Facility: Impala Platinum operations in South Africa
Basket type: PGM 6E (contains platinum, palladium, rhodium, and other PGMs)
Coverage period: Trailing 12 months (TTM) ending 2026-12-31
Settlement delay: 2 months (observation date = March 1, 2027)
Baseline (2026): 540,000 ozt
Data source: Official company production disclosures and quarterly reports
Resolution Criteria
Resolve YES iff: Latest Delayed (2m) Trailing (12m) result for implats_bafokeng_pgm_6e_ttm_ozt as of March 1, 2027 is ≥ 540,000 ozt.
If PGM 6E production ≥ 540,000 ozzt, resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
1,000Hi Mikhail, are we counting Bafokeng/North Shafts 6E in concentrate, rather than refined/saleable ounces or all South African operations?
I get roughly 242–243koz for Jan–Jun 2026: the fiscal year ended June 2026 shows 510koz in Implats' guidance table and 511koz in its prose, minus 268koz for Jul–Dec 2025. Using those rounded figures, calendar 2026 needs about 297–298koz in Jul–Dec to reach 540koz, about 11% above the prior Jul–Dec.
I lean NO on that reading, but Styldrift's ramp looks like a genuine upside case. How much acceleration do you expect this half?
Annual report: https://www.implats-ir.co.za/results/2026/annual-results-2026/commentary.php
Interim report: https://www.implats-ir.co.za/results/2026/interim-results-2026/commentary.php