This market tracks PGM 4E production at the facility level.
Facility: Sibanye-Stillwater operations in South Africa
Basket type: PGM 4E (contains platinum, palladium, rhodium, and other PGMs)
Coverage period: Trailing 12 months (TTM) ending 2026-12-31
Settlement delay: 2 months (observation date = March 1, 2027)
Baseline (2026): 760,000 ozt
Data source: Official company production disclosures and quarterly reports
Resolution Criteria
Resolve YES iff: Latest Delayed (2m) Trailing (12m) result for sibanye_rustenburg_kroondal_pgm_4e_ttm_ozt as of March 1, 2027 is ≥ 760,000 ozt.
If PGM 4E production ≥ 760,000 ozt, resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
1,000South African PGM producers face conflicting pressures heading into 2027. On one hand, the LPPM exclusion of Russian refineries and resulting 11% palladium price jump [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101800575] creates strong economic incentives for South African mines to maintain production and capture market share. However, Statistics South Africa reported mining production fell 9.6% in February [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103298800], signaling structural challenges in the sector. For Sibanye-Stillwater's Rustenburg operations, the question is whether higher palladium prices can overcome operational headwinds affecting the broader South African mining industry.