Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, by 23:59 Moscow Time (UTC+3) on May 5, 2026, Nornickel's total palladium production over the trailing twelve months (TTM) is reported to be less than 2.3 million ounces. Acceptable proof includes official company production reports or credible financial news sources reporting on Nornickel's production figures. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
Verification links (any one suffices)
Nornickel official reports: https://www.nornickel.com/investors/reports-and-results/
Bloomberg News: https://www.bloomberg.com
Clarifications
Only the total palladium production figures for the specified period count; projections or estimates do not.
Background
Nornickel, the world's largest palladium producer, has projected a decline in palladium output due to lower ore grades and challenges in equipment sourcing following geopolitical tensions. Current production levels are around 2.4 million ounces, with potential reductions due to changes in raw material composition and equipment efficiency. The company has been adapting to new machinery from China and Belarus, which may impact production efficiency in the short term. (Bloomberg News)
Source: Article
1,000Nornickel, Russia's largest mining company, has projected a significant palladium production decline, potentially falling as low as 2.4 million ounces, an 11% decrease due to lower ore grades. Given Nornickel's dominance, this drop could tighten global supply and affect prices, making it a material market mover. Source