Resolution Criteria

The US-UK Tech Prosperity Deal was suspended on 16 December 2025 over disputes on the UK's Digital Services Tax, food safety standards, and Online Safety Act regulations. This market resolves YES if the deal is officially reinstated (i.e., the suspension is lifted and implementation resumes) by 31 March 2026. Resolution will be confirmed via official statements from both the UK and US governments or their designated representatives. Both sides agreed to further negotiations in January. The market resolves NO if the deal remains suspended or is formally terminated by the end of Q1 2026.

Background

On 18 September 2025, the UK and United States published a Memorandum of Understanding called the Technology Prosperity Deal, committing the two governments to deepen cooperation in a range of science and technology areas. The agreement represented the largest commercial package, GBP 31b (USD 42b), ever secured during a state visit, with corporate commitments including major investments from Microsoft, Google, Nvidia and OpenAI. The Technology Prosperity Deal establishes joint initiatives between the two nations' premiere research and standards institutions across artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and quantum computing.

Considerations

The memorandum contained explicit conditionality that it would 'become operative' only 'alongside substantive progress' on a separate Economic Prosperity Deal addressing trade barriers. The Digital Services Tax remains the most contentious issue. The 2% levy on technology company revenues, retained in Chancellor Rachel Reeves's November 2025 Autumn Budget, raises approximately GBP 800m annually from firms including Amazon, Google, and Meta. Food standards disputes represent a second pressure point. The UK maintains bans on chlorinated poultry and hormone-treated beef that effectively block significant American agricultural exports.