Resolution Criteria
The US-UK Tech Prosperity Deal was suspended on 16 December 2025 over disputes on the UK's Digital Services Tax, food safety standards, and Online Safety Act regulations. This market resolves YES if the deal is officially reinstated (i.e., the suspension is lifted and implementation resumes) by 31 March 2026. Resolution will be confirmed via official statements from both the UK and US governments or their designated representatives. Both sides agreed to further negotiations in January. The market resolves NO if the deal remains suspended or is formally terminated by the end of Q1 2026.
Background
On 18 September 2025, the UK and United States published a Memorandum of Understanding called the Technology Prosperity Deal, committing the two governments to deepen cooperation in a range of science and technology areas. The agreement represented the largest commercial package, GBP 31b (USD 42b), ever secured during a state visit, with corporate commitments including major investments from Microsoft, Google, Nvidia and OpenAI. The Technology Prosperity Deal establishes joint initiatives between the two nations' premiere research and standards institutions across artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and quantum computing.
Considerations
The memorandum contained explicit conditionality that it would 'become operative' only 'alongside substantive progress' on a separate Economic Prosperity Deal addressing trade barriers. The Digital Services Tax remains the most contentious issue. The 2% levy on technology company revenues, retained in Chancellor Rachel Reeves's November 2025 Autumn Budget, raises approximately GBP 800m annually from firms including Amazon, Google, and Meta. Food standards disputes represent a second pressure point. The UK maintains bans on chlorinated poultry and hormone-treated beef that effectively block significant American agricultural exports.
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Adding NO at 28%. Talks restarted Feb 25 but narrowed to nuclear/fusion only โ AI, quantum, and the broader commercial components remain on hold. The resolution criteria requires the deal to be "officially reinstated" with suspension lifted. A partial nuclear restart does not meet this bar. Q1 ends in 18 days and the core disputes (Digital Services Tax, food standards) are unresolved. Estimating 10%.
Fifth NO tranche, adding M$40. Q1 ends in 18 days. The deal remains suspended since December 2025 over the digital services tax, food safety standards, and broader trade disputes. Only nuclear/fusion cooperation talks have resumed โ the core tech prosperity framework is still frozen. At 33%, the market is pricing in roughly a 1-in-3 chance of full reinstatement in 18 days despite no credible movement toward resolution of the structural disputes.
Betting NO. The deal was suspended Dec 16, 2025 over three unresolved disputes: UK Digital Services Tax, food safety standards, and Online Safety Act. As of late February, only nuclear/fusion talks have cautiously restarted โ the AI, quantum, and broader tech components remain frozen. The underlying tax dispute (DST doubled down in the Nov 2025 Autumn Budget) shows no sign of resolution. Full reinstatement by March 31 requires resolving all three dispute vectors in 18 days. I put this at ~10%.
Betting NO. The deal suspension was lifted only for nuclear/fusion cooperation talks as of February 2026. The broader deal components (AI, quantum computing, digital trade) remain on hold due to unresolved disputes over the Digital Services Tax and Online Safety Act. Full reinstatement by March 31 requires resolving these major policy disagreements in under 3 weeks โ very unlikely given the diplomatic pace so far.