Will the entire civilian population of Gaza be expelled from the Gaza Strip by January 1, 2025?
15
1kṀ1314
resolved Jan 7
Resolved
NO

Israel
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Arab-Israeli Conflict
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ49
2Ṁ16
3Ṁ12
4Ṁ10
5Ṁ8

People are also trading

Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025
66% chance
[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?
19% chance
Will Israel ethnically cleanse the Gaza strip of more than 100,000 Palestinian civilians by 2025?
3% chance
Will Israel still have troops in the Gaza Strip at the end of 2025?
95% chance
Will 50,000 United States citizens live in the Gaza strip by Jan 1 2029?
6% chance
Will Israel annex any part of Gaza by the end of 2025?
16% chance
If Israel “eradicates” Hamas, will they allow > 600k Palestnians back into north of Wadi Gaza before end of 2025?
72% chance
Will Israel annex a part of Gaza by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?
13% chance
Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2025?
1% chance
Sort by:

@Gabrielle resolves NO

I extended the closing time to the date mentioned in the title -- it looks like the creator used the default of 1 week by accident.

predictedNO

@JamesTerry Why not to keep this open until resolution?

predictedNO

I feel like we recently get a wave of provocative polls with gets to <10% within minutes, and everyone bets "NO" immidiately

People are also trading

Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025
66% chance
[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?
19% chance
Will Israel ethnically cleanse the Gaza strip of more than 100,000 Palestinian civilians by 2025?
3% chance
Will Israel still have troops in the Gaza Strip at the end of 2025?
95% chance
Will 50,000 United States citizens live in the Gaza strip by Jan 1 2029?
6% chance
Will Israel annex any part of Gaza by the end of 2025?
16% chance
If Israel “eradicates” Hamas, will they allow > 600k Palestnians back into north of Wadi Gaza before end of 2025?
72% chance
Will Israel annex a part of Gaza by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?
13% chance
Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2025?
1% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules