Will Democrats pass a substantial reconciliation bill before the midterm elections?
85
85
694
resolved Aug 14
Resolved
NO
This question resolves to YES if the Democrats pass a bill prior to the November 8th midterm elections that commits, at minimum, $500 billion in towards climate and social spending (excludes deficit reduction), over a 10 year budget window.
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predicted YES

Resolving as NO because the initial terms were clear that the amount had to be $500 B. Sorry for the confusion as I had at one point said I'd resolve to a partial Yes because a bill did pass that didn't quite reach that number.

bought Ṁ124 of NO

I am unclear why anyone would buy YES considering this already didn’t happen.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@BTE >27% chance he resolves dishonestly considering his statement

predicted NO

@OliverS So we should be driving it to zero.

predicted NO

@OliverS I don’t understand betting in anticipation of dishonest resolution. Especially when you have 100 percent chance of it being NO. What is the benefit to him of resolving a 0% market yes??

predicted NO

@OliverS That is fucked up. Equally dishonest to bet YES as it is to resolve YES. Your reputation should get dinged along with creator.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@BTE All markets are bets on how the creator will resolve the market. I think you make a good argument, but I'm not the creator, and I'm betting there's a chance that James won't be convinced.

predicted YES

@BTE Don’t hate the player hate the game

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

This market is NO. Period.

predicted NO

@BTE Any resolution other than NO should result in a ban.

@BTE that's not how it works, though. The premise of Manifold is that creators can resolve however they want. A community reputation system of some kind is of course badly needed.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

The Inflation Profiteering Act includes less than this, resolves NO as currently proposed.

predicted NO

@Gigacasting The creator of this market has said that because it dedicates 86% of what he proposed, he'll resolve to 86% if it passes. I find that counterintuitive, and it should definitely be in the market description, but there you go.

predicted NO

Creator can send M46 for rugging.

“At a minimum, $500 billion” is beyond unambiguous.

Notice he took a long position then stole from everyone betting here:

ill Democrats pass a substantial reconciliation bill before the midterm elections?

88%

James Medlock

M$858

+329.1%

Payout if YES

M$970

Payout if NO

M$0

Profit

M$658

predicted NO

Either way, strong candidate for the first person to be hard or soft banned.

predicted NO

(actually this has to resolve N/A, given at least a dozen people are being stolen from with YES resolution and just as many if NO, who bet after he changed the terms)

predicted YES

@Gigacasting Yeah this is pretty clearly breaking the terms set in the description. One of the nice parts about manifold markets is that you don't have to spell out the requirements exactly, so writing them out and the reneging is extra dumb. Just use less definitive language/be more vague, that's what I did in my market!

OK it seems unlikely that the topline number for IRA will go up—if anything it's likelier to go down, but maybe there's still a plausible chance for YES resolution if Medlock is feeling chaotic? There's apparently $5 billion allocated in the bill towards the Energy Community Reinvestment Financing Program under Energy Policy Act of 2005. This money allows the Department of Energy to guarantee up to $250 billion dollars in loans for clean energy projects. (This is the same program that lent money to both Solyndra and Tesla). So... if you were to count the $250 billion, then 250 + 369 > 500. Maybe?
predicted YES
My market will count the IRA https://manifold.markets/OliverS/will-democrats-pass-a-major-bill-wh
sold Ṁ33 of NO
Hmm, the recent talks suggest this has only $433 billion in climate and social spending. Seems like it wouldn't qualify for YES resolution? https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/07/27/manchin-says-he-has-reached-deal-with-democrats-economy-climate-bill/?itid=hp-top-table-main
predicted YES

@fortenforge I will resolve this as an 86% win

@JamesMedlock So the NO just get screwed?!?

bought Ṁ24 of NO

@JamesMedlock Those were not the terms as stated in the question or the description. I've bought M$25 NO (was not a previous participant in this market). This should resolve NO---and it should be a lesson about why it's dangerous to bet in your own markets!