Background: we launched ads a month ago, and have been thinking about a v2 version.
We're now building the next version and it will be released within ~2 weeks.
Current plan for v2:
All ads are single promoted markets
Promoted markets appear in your feed
You still get paid for watching them, and betting is optional (but accessible)
We optionally target the ad based on a provided interest (e.g. "AI" or "NFL")
This market is about whether this new v2 version of ads will reach 1 million mana purchased within 2 months of launch.
Previous related market:
https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-more-than-m69420-be-spent-on-a
The first version of ads hit about 70k paid in 1 month. This would be about 500k per month or slightly more than 7x the volume.
Edit: To clarify, the relaunched ads feature is called "boosting" your market. In your feed these markets are labeled "Boosted".
@JamesGrugett , should be resolveable now right? I would also very much like the final number so I can resolve my other markets.
@Fedor We can resolve this June 28th! (I commented on April 28th below saying that was the start date)
I million mana = 1,000,000 spent on ads.
Currently 1 ad = 5 mana. To get to 1 million spent mana, we need 200,000 ad purchases.
200,000 is a large number.
The previous ad release got 70k mana. This ad relaunch is 10X effective but that's 700k mana. The timelines are short.. if this was for another month, i'd buy yes
@firstuserhere "You still get paid for watching them" doesn't sound like an accurate description of boosts. For those who have been following the developments closely, you are correct.
@Mira Just did a calculation using DAU and expected no of ads per user per day. Still stand by YES but now im confused as to why ad v1 can get 70k/month.
@SavioMak I have quite significantly updated down though. Starting to regret buying that much YES using the 70k x7 estimate rather than doing the calculation.
@SavioMak In my opinion this new version of ads are significantly better and easier to use though, but there might be some user loss in that the new ads only allow market promotion and not general posts.