Will the relaunched ads feature have 1 million mana in paid ads within two months of launch?
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56
Ṁ39k
resolved Jul 19
Resolved
NO

Background: we launched ads a month ago, and have been thinking about a v2 version.

We're now building the next version and it will be released within ~2 weeks.

Current plan for v2:

  • All ads are single promoted markets

  • Promoted markets appear in your feed

  • You still get paid for watching them, and betting is optional (but accessible)

  • We optionally target the ad based on a provided interest (e.g. "AI" or "NFL")

This market is about whether this new v2 version of ads will reach 1 million mana purchased within 2 months of launch.

Previous related market:
https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-more-than-m69420-be-spent-on-a

The first version of ads hit about 70k paid in 1 month. This would be about 500k per month or slightly more than 7x the volume.

Edit: To clarify, the relaunched ads feature is called "boosting" your market. In your feed these markets are labeled "Boosted".

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predicted NO

@JamesGrugett , should be resolveable now right? I would also very much like the final number so I can resolve my other markets.

predicted YES

@Fedor We can resolve this June 28th! (I commented on April 28th below saying that was the start date)

predicted NO

@JamesGrugett How bout now?

predicted YES

@Sinclair Do you know this result?

predicted YES
select sum((data ->> 'amount')::numeric) from txns
where data ->> 'category' = 'MARKET_BOOST_CREATE'

which is 619674. which is less than 1 million. should resolve NO

predicted YES

@Sinclair Thanks Sinclair!

predicted YES

Curious about any possible v3!

predicted NO

@JamesGrugett resolve?

predicted NO

@Mira Should be another week before the 2 months are up, I believe.

For some reason this market is not showing up in my portfolio/profit graph

predicted NO

I've spent a lot. It actually kind of works. I only make back maybe 15% of the mana I put in but it's still worth it for the increased participation

This market is trending at 5-7% after the update, so I've made 2 markets that are around more interesting goals:

I don't know whether this market resolves June 20th, or June 30th. So I've gone with the conservative estimate.

predicted YES

Any preliminary updates on how it's going?

@Fedor 168k spent so far

I million mana = 1,000,000 spent on ads.

Currently 1 ad = 5 mana. To get to 1 million spent mana, we need 200,000 ad purchases.

200,000 is a large number.

The previous ad release got 70k mana. This ad relaunch is 10X effective but that's 700k mana. The timelines are short.. if this was for another month, i'd buy yes

@JamesGrugett Perhaps the title and description should be updated? "Boosts" instead of "ads", etc.

predicted YES

@kenakofer eh, it's clear enough ig. v2 version of ads = boosts

@firstuserhere "You still get paid for watching them" doesn't sound like an accurate description of boosts. For those who have been following the developments closely, you are correct.

Highly underrated imo. Just look at how many ads there are in your feed. Easily 7x the volume. (I would be willing to buy it up to 50% but people let me get away with buying at 20%. I have spent a significant % of my portfolio on this market so I can't bet on here anymore)

@SavioMak I'm estimating M450k.

predicted YES

@Mira Just did a calculation using DAU and expected no of ads per user per day. Still stand by YES but now im confused as to why ad v1 can get 70k/month.

predicted YES

@SavioMak I have quite significantly updated down though. Starting to regret buying that much YES using the 70k x7 estimate rather than doing the calculation.

predicted YES

@SavioMak In my opinion this new version of ads are significantly better and easier to use though, but there might be some user loss in that the new ads only allow market promotion and not general posts.

predicted YES

For the purposes of the market, today is the launch! Go forth and boost your markets!

This looks very interesting. 1m mana is a lot, though.

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