Will the relaunched ads feature have 1 million mana in paid ads within two months of launch?
closes Jun 4

Background: we launched ads a month ago, and have been thinking about a v2 version.

We're now building the next version and it will be released within ~2 weeks.

Current plan for v2:

  • All ads are single promoted markets

  • Promoted markets appear in your feed

  • You still get paid for watching them, and betting is optional (but accessible)

  • We optionally target the ad based on a provided interest (e.g. "AI" or "NFL")

This market is about whether this new v2 version of ads will reach 1 million mana purchased within 2 months of launch.

Previous related market:

The first version of ads hit about 70k paid in 1 month. This would be about 500k per month or slightly more than 7x the volume.

Edit: To clarify, the relaunched ads feature is called "boosting" your market. In your feed these markets are labeled "Boosted".

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Odoacre avatar
Odoacrebought Ṁ10 of NO

For some reason this market is not showing up in my portfolio/profit graph

StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsis predicting NO at 9%

I've spent a lot. It actually kind of works. I only make back maybe 15% of the mana I put in but it's still worth it for the increased participation

Fedor avatar
Fedorsold Ṁ852 of NO

This market is trending at 5-7% after the update, so I've made 2 markets that are around more interesting goals:

I don't know whether this market resolves June 20th, or June 30th. So I've gone with the conservative estimate.

Fedor avatar
Fedoris predicting YES at 17%

Any preliminary updates on how it's going?

ian avatar
Ian Philipsbought Ṁ3,000 of NO

@Fedor 168k spent so far

PseudonymousAlt avatar

I million mana = 1,000,000 spent on ads.

Currently 1 ad = 5 mana. To get to 1 million spent mana, we need 200,000 ad purchases.

200,000 is a large number.

The previous ad release got 70k mana. This ad relaunch is 10X effective but that's 700k mana. The timelines are short.. if this was for another month, i'd buy yes

kenakofer avatar

@JamesGrugett Perhaps the title and description should be updated? "Boosts" instead of "ads", etc.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhereis predicting YES at 24%

@kenakofer eh, it's clear enough ig. v2 version of ads = boosts

kenakofer avatar

@firstuserhere "You still get paid for watching them" doesn't sound like an accurate description of boosts. For those who have been following the developments closely, you are correct.

SavioMak avatar
Savio Makbought Ṁ294 of YES

Highly underrated imo. Just look at how many ads there are in your feed. Easily 7x the volume. (I would be willing to buy it up to 50% but people let me get away with buying at 20%. I have spent a significant % of my portfolio on this market so I can't bet on here anymore)

Mira avatar
Mirabought Ṁ0 of NO

@SavioMak I'm estimating M450k.

SavioMak avatar
Savio Makis predicting YES at 22%

@Mira Just did a calculation using DAU and expected no of ads per user per day. Still stand by YES but now im confused as to why ad v1 can get 70k/month.

SavioMak avatar
Savio Makis predicting YES at 22%

@SavioMak I have quite significantly updated down though. Starting to regret buying that much YES using the 70k x7 estimate rather than doing the calculation.

nollfem avatar
Oskaris predicting YES at 22%

@SavioMak In my opinion this new version of ads are significantly better and easier to use though, but there might be some user loss in that the new ads only allow market promotion and not general posts.

JamesGrugett avatar
Jamesis predicting YES at 38%

For the purposes of the market, today is the launch! Go forth and boost your markets!

StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsbought Ṁ1 of NO

This looks very interesting. 1m mana is a lot, though.

JamesGrugett avatar
Jamessold Ṁ6 of NO

An even more ambitious goal:

JamesGrugett avatar

@JamesGrugett And even more ambitious:

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