Will the relaunched ads feature have 1 million mana in paid ads within two months of launch? | Manifold Markets

2

Will the relaunched ads feature have 1 million mana in paid ads within two months of launch?

54

closes Jun 4

8%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Background: we launched ads a month ago, and have been thinking about a v2 version.

We're now building the next version and it will be released within ~2 weeks.

Current plan for v2:

All ads are single promoted markets
Promoted markets appear in your feed
You still get paid for watching them, and betting is optional (but accessible)
We optionally target the ad based on a provided interest (e.g. "AI" or "NFL")

This market is about whether this new v2 version of ads will reach 1 million mana purchased within 2 months of launch.

Previous related market:
https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-more-than-m69420-be-spent-on-a

The first version of ads hit about 70k paid in 1 month. This would be about 500k per month or slightly more than 7x the volume.

Edit: To clarify, the relaunched ads feature is called "boosting" your market. In your feed these markets are labeled "Boosted".

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Odoacrebought Ṁ10 of NO

For some reason this market is not showing up in my portfolio/profit graph

Reynoldsis predicting NO at 9%

I've spent a lot. It actually kind of works. I only make back maybe 15% of the mana I put in but it's still worth it for the increased participation

Fedorsold Ṁ852 of NO

This market is trending at 5-7% after the update, so I've made 2 markets that are around more interesting goals:

I don't know whether this market resolves June 20th, or June 30th. So I've gone with the conservative estimate.

Fedoris predicting YES at 17%

Any preliminary updates on how it's going?

Ian Philipsbought Ṁ3,000 of NO

@Fedor 168k spent so far

PseudonymousAlt

I million mana = 1,000,000 spent on ads.

Currently 1 ad = 5 mana. To get to 1 million spent mana, we need 200,000 ad purchases.

200,000 is a large number.

The previous ad release got 70k mana. This ad relaunch is 10X effective but that's 700k mana. The timelines are short.. if this was for another month, i'd buy yes

@JamesGrugett Perhaps the title and description should be updated? "Boosts" instead of "ads", etc.

firstuserhereis predicting YES at 24%

@kenakofer eh, it's clear enough ig. v2 version of ads = boosts

@firstuserhere "You still get paid for watching them" doesn't sound like an accurate description of boosts. For those who have been following the developments closely, you are correct.

Savio Makbought Ṁ294 of YES

Highly underrated imo. Just look at how many ads there are in your feed. Easily 7x the volume. (I would be willing to buy it up to 50% but people let me get away with buying at 20%. I have spent a significant % of my portfolio on this market so I can't bet on here anymore)

Mirabought Ṁ0 of NO

@SavioMak I'm estimating M450k.

Savio Makis predicting YES at 22%

@Mira Just did a calculation using DAU and expected no of ads per user per day. Still stand by YES but now im confused as to why ad v1 can get 70k/month.

Savio Makis predicting YES at 22%

@SavioMak I have quite significantly updated down though. Starting to regret buying that much YES using the 70k x7 estimate rather than doing the calculation.

Oskaris predicting YES at 22%

@SavioMak In my opinion this new version of ads are significantly better and easier to use though, but there might be some user loss in that the new ads only allow market promotion and not general posts.

Jamesis predicting YES at 38%

For the purposes of the market, today is the launch! Go forth and boost your markets!

Reynoldsbought Ṁ1 of NO

This looks very interesting. 1m mana is a lot, though.

Jamessold Ṁ6 of NO

An even more ambitious goal:

@JamesGrugett And even more ambitious:

wustep bought Ṁ222 NO from 9% to 8%

Enrico Susatyo bought Ṁ10 YES from 8% to 9%

wustep bought Ṁ360 NO from 10% to 8%

Chelos bought Ṁ4 YES at 10% 🤖

wustep bought Ṁ500 NO from 13% to 10%

Ian Philips bought Ṁ10 NO at 13%

Odoacre sold Ṁ86 NO at 13%

wustep bought Ṁ100 NO from 14% to 13%

Hayden Jackson bought Ṁ10 YES from 13% to 14%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ95/Ṁ100 NO at 13% (cancelled) 🤖

wustep bought Ṁ350 NO from 18% to 14%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ58/Ṁ100 NO at 18% (cancelled) 🤖

Odoacre sold Ṁ333 NO from 15% to 19%

S G bought Ṁ10 YES from 14% to 15%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 YES at 14% (cancelled) 🤖

S G bought Ṁ20 YES from 12% to 13%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 12% 🤖

Ian Philips sold Ṁ175 NO from 11% to 13%

Ian Philips sold Ṁ449 NO from 9% to 11%

Oskar bought Ṁ10 YES from 8% to 9%

A sold Ṁ7 YES from 9% to 8%

Hap P. Lee bought Ṁ5 YES at 9%

Ian Philips sold Ṁ461 NO from 7% to 9%

Dan sold Ṁ12 NO at 7%

Ian Philips sold Ṁ93 NO at 7%

Hayden Jackson sold Ṁ18 YES at 7%

Hap P. Lee bought Ṁ10 YES at 7%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ100 YES at 7% (cancelled) 🤖

Hap P. Lee sold Ṁ76 YES from 9% to 6%

Odoacre bought Ṁ10 NO at 9%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 9% 🤖

Hap P. Lee bought Ṁ50 YES from 7% to 10%

Hap P. Lee bought Ṁ25 YES from 6% to 7%

Hap P. Lee bought Ṁ100 NO from 7% to 6%

Hap P. Lee bought Ṁ100 NO at 7%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ5 NO at 7% 🤖

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ5 NO at 7% 🤖

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ5 NO at 7% 🤖

Mira created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 1.0%

Mira filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ25 YES at 6%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ25 YES at 5%

Mira bought Ṁ555 NO from 9% to 7%

Mira sold Ṁ926 NO from 6% to 9%

Fedor sold Ṁ852 NO from 5% to 6%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ25 YES at 4%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ25 YES at 3%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ25 YES at 2%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ25 YES at 1.0%

Fedor bought Ṁ1,000 NO at 5%

Fedor bought Ṁ100 NO at 5%

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