What will be true of the Manifold Dating app (Manifold Love)?
Basic
153
86k
Apr 1
77%
Someone will successfully find a partner from it that last at least 6 months
·
9mo
76%
At least 3 of the first 10 reported serious relationships resulting from it will not be straight
·
9mo
66%
Manifold Dating website will be mostly defunct by the end of 2025
·
4mo
63%
Manifold Dating website will be mostly defunct by the end of 2024
·
4mo
19%
Someone will form a harem
·
8mo
16%
Someone will marry a person they found using the app
·
9mo
16%
I will find it easier to get good dates on the Manifold app than on Hinge
·
9mo
13%
@toms will go on a date within 6 months of launch due to it
·
8mo
13%
Someone on the manifold team will use it to enter a long term relationship
·
9mo
5%
There will be at least 1000 (active) profiles on March 30th
·
8mo
5%
It will be an independent app on iOS App Store before 2025
·
4mo
1.6%
There will be at least 1500 (active) profiles on March 30th
·
8mo
Resolved
YES
It will be "awesome" according to James
·
9mo
Resolved
YES
Someone will go on an in-person date
·
9mo
Resolved
YES
A biological woman will sign up before November
·
8mo
Resolved
YES
A market will resolve before December 1st
·
8mo
Resolved
YES
Someone will have a video chat or date with someone else on the platform, because of the platform, before December
·
8mo
Resolved
YES
It will launch by March 2024
·
9mo
Resolved
YES
Its Male:Female ratio will be above 66% on March 1st, 2024
·
9mo
Resolved
N/A
It will - at some point in the future - either exist or not exist.
·
9mo

https://manifold.love

Please add your own answers! I will judge them all when appropriate!

This is the first "independent" multiple choice market!


See the proposal for "Manifold Dating" here:

https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-manifold-dating-reach-1000-dai#pSWjKL8lDZdwNvnoRL8x

Will "Manifold Dating" reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?
12% chance. Manifold is mulling a new product, perhaps hosted at manifold.love, which takes aim at the dating market. The site would feature one prediction market per dating profile that asks: "Who will I date for 6 months?" In a first, we would leverage crowdsourced betting to surface the top matches for each person, based on real predictions of how long their relationship would last. Read my full writeup here! Excerpts are below. Super interested in what the Manifold community thinks about this proposal. Let's iterate on the design to make it as strong as possible. At Manifest, Robin Hanson urged us to find a high-value use case for prediction markets. He suggested markets on which candidate to hire. But markets on who should date might be even higher value (and more fun)! Thesis Matching people into relationships is a killer use case for prediction markets because: It is fun for traders, which means people will be motivated to bet and thus create accurate forecasts Accurate forecasts of relationships are super valuable Betting on love is fun Aella’s and Shelvacu’s markets got a giant amount of traction (the biggest two at Manifest!) Proof School’s original popular markets were betting on relationships continuing Austin’s OG markets on getting a girlfriend and marrying Rachel were some of the site’s most popular People can’t look away. They even will bet on people’s relationships when they don’t know them personally. It’s too fun. Prediction markets are an ideal solution to matchmaking Prediction markets allow crowdsourced betting on who should date who with feedback from actual outcomes. Those bets will produce accurate forecasts, going on Manifold’s strong track record. Matchmaking is a forecasting problem, so let’s use the most powerful forecasting tool! How it might work Users opt-in to create dating profiles One main prediction market per person: “Who will I date for 6 months?” Free response market constrained to dating profiles on Manifold. Resolves to next such person you date for 6 months Subsidized liquidity (M2000?) Created when you first fill out your profile. Custom UI for browsing and betting on dating profiles A table view with one row per person, standard info in columns, link to full profile (or opens in sidebar on desktop) Select two people and bet on their relationship success For each person, show the market’s top three matches (and let you bet on them directly from the table view) Filtering, sorting, pinning potential matches via checkbox, leaving notes Principles Matchmaking is betting, and everyone can play matchmaker Empower matchmakers Give them the UI and tools to be effective Public dating profiles with high information drive better crowdsourced decisions Kickstart a flourishing ecosystem of fun secondary dating markets The hope is that by doing the main matchmaking through markets, people will be more willing to create lots and lots of secondary markets on aspects of their dating lives. And they will be hilarious and super engaging E.g. Will we kiss tonight? Where will we go for our date? Will our relationship last two weeks? Will he propose this year? How many children will we have by 2030? Privacy where possible (Not 100% on this yet) Dating profiles won’t by default be linkable and shareable. You can only find them in the table with everyone else Allows people to feel freer to include more about themselves Dating profiles will not by default be linked to your Manifold account. Can use a pseudonym Encourage evolving community sophistication at matchmaking Matchmakers will learn what questions to ask daters (comment section on dating profile) Daters will fill in more information over time based on what is helpful With DM’s (private 1:1 chat), traders can ask about character flaws too sensitive to broadcast publicly
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@JamesGrugett Why was this N/A'd? Did your artificial superintelligence tell you to?

@Pykess That was supposed to be a reply to the "it will prove prediction markets ..." answer.

@Pykess I don't think there was an objective way to resolve that answer

@JamesGrugett how so? Markets were telling you it would not work, but you went ahead and did it anyway. Sounds spot on.

@Odoacre A low chance of success does not mean it's not worth doing. The 1000 daily active users by Feb 14th market got as high as 16-17% chance after extensive trading for a very ambitious goal.

Thanks for the reminder. I will now go resolve the regret market to NO haha.

sold Ṁ27 There will be at lea... NO

@JamesGrugett It was only that high because you bet a huge amount of mana on it...

@Shump Not true. I only bet to 10% or maybe 12%. Check the trade history!

@JamesGrugett You bought 666 thousand shares. Even if you bought them low, you prevented the market from going lower with massive investments. At that price, it means you had more than 500k mana bet against you.

To put that into perspective, that's about as much mana as Marcus, by far the biggest whale, had at that time, and about 5% of the entire mana of Manifold. If that's not a market-warping amount I don't know what is.

@JamesGrugett in addition to shump's point, which I agree with, there's a couple other minor ways a 12% order distorts the price.

  • Fear that you have insider knowledge or the inclination to game the stats with your insider powers: e.g. a Valentine's marketing blitz that lets ManLove squeak over the line.

  • Traders will be hesitant to buy too low if there's a potential for another huge James limit order to drop at a higher price

@Shump if this isn't the clearest case that this answer should've resolved YES, idk what is

bought Ṁ50 Answer #ab2f536e8781 YES

Seems like active development stopped last month but was just announced today?

@june Yup.

Someone will marry a person they found using the app

Are there a time limit for this?

@AmmonLam 10 years? Haha

Someone will successfully find a partner from it that last at least 6 months

Are there a time limit for this? Until Manifold.love become defunct?

@AmmonLam I'll give it the rest of 2024 as a reasonable cut off

@JamesGrugett Just one more clarifying question:

by the end of 2024 if no one had spent 6 months with partner found from Manifold it resolves No?

or by the end of June 2025 if no one had spent 6 months with partner found from Manifold it resolves No?

Is the deadline Feb 28 or March 31?

bought Ṁ125 Someone on the manif... NO

@gregrosent I wrote the option and I meant Feb 29. I believe the original close date was March 1st.

@JamesGrugett can we resolve this option?

What caused this to resolve yes?

@wasabipesto I would guess Bet On Love - I don't remember the specific reference, but I'd be shocked if there wasn't a reference.

@BenjaminCosman Was it "broadcasted" though? It also happened after the cutoff date. James mentioned in a comment that he missed that: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/what-will-be-true-of-the-manifold-d#4ay2z4xdb3s

@wasabipesto It was incorrectly resolved, as James said below:

Oops should have resolved NO on "A broadcasted reality dating show will reference Manifold Dating (by 2/1/24)" since it happened Feb 10th...

Unfortunately manifold doesn't currently support re-resolving unlinked multiple choice answers.

I've added it to the list of answers to be re-resolved once support is implemented:

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1191630325797896293

@chrisjbillington Re-resolved now!

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