What will be true of the Manifold Dating app (Manifold Love)?
140
3.3K
16K
Apr 1
98%
Its Male:Female ratio will be above 66% on March 1st, 2024
98%
Its [straight bio-male]:[straight bio-female] ratio will be above 66% (2:1) by March 2024
95%
Over ten percent of women on the platform will be transgender on March 2024.
85%
Its Male:Female ratio will be above 69% on March 1st, 2024
81%
Someone will successfully find a partner from it that last at least 6 months
76%
At least 3 of the first 10 reported serious relationships resulting from it will not be straight
56%
Aella will resolve a market YES by EOY 2024
50%
Its Male:Female ratio will be above 75% on March 1st, 2024
50%
It will be an independent app on iOS App Store before 2025
31%
We will think it was a mistake in retrospect
29%
It will prove Prediction Markets are correct but entrepreneurs like @JamesGrugett will continue to make the wrong decisions even if equipped with the best prediction tools
24%
Someone will marry a person they found using the app
19%
I will find it easier to get good dates on the Manifold app than on Hinge
19%
Someone will form a harem
18%
@toms will go on a date within 6 months of launch due to it
18%
Someone on the manifold team will use it to enter a long term relationship
16%
Its Male:Female ratio will be above 90% on March 1st, 2024
15%
There will be at least 1500 (active) profiles on March 30th
14%
It will no longer be actively developed by March 2024
10%
There will be at least 1000 (active) profiles on March 30th

Please add your own answers! I will judge them all when appropriate!

This is the first "independent" multiple choice market!


See the proposal for "Manifold Dating" here:

https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-manifold-dating-reach-1000-dai#pSWjKL8lDZdwNvnoRL8x

Will "Manifold Dating" reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?
12% chance. Manifold is mulling a new product, perhaps hosted at manifold.love, which takes aim at the dating market. The site would feature one prediction market per dating profile that asks: "Who will I date for 6 months?" In a first, we would leverage crowdsourced betting to surface the top matches for each person, based on real predictions of how long their relationship would last. Read my full writeup here! Excerpts are below. Super interested in what the Manifold community thinks about this proposal. Let's iterate on the design to make it as strong as possible. At Manifest, Robin Hanson urged us to find a high-value use case for prediction markets. He suggested markets on which candidate to hire. But markets on who should date might be even higher value (and more fun)! Thesis Matching people into relationships is a killer use case for prediction markets because: It is fun for traders, which means people will be motivated to bet and thus create accurate forecasts Accurate forecasts of relationships are super valuable Betting on love is fun Aella’s and Shelvacu’s markets got a giant amount of traction (the biggest two at Manifest!) Proof School’s original popular markets were betting on relationships continuing Austin’s OG markets on getting a girlfriend and marrying Rachel were some of the site’s most popular People can’t look away. They even will bet on people’s relationships when they don’t know them personally. It’s too fun. Prediction markets are an ideal solution to matchmaking Prediction markets allow crowdsourced betting on who should date who with feedback from actual outcomes. Those bets will produce accurate forecasts, going on Manifold’s strong track record. Matchmaking is a forecasting problem, so let’s use the most powerful forecasting tool! How it might work Users opt-in to create dating profiles One main prediction market per person: “Who will I date for 6 months?” Free response market constrained to dating profiles on Manifold. Resolves to next such person you date for 6 months Subsidized liquidity (M2000?) Created when you first fill out your profile. Custom UI for browsing and betting on dating profiles A table view with one row per person, standard info in columns, link to full profile (or opens in sidebar on desktop) Select two people and bet on their relationship success For each person, show the market’s top three matches (and let you bet on them directly from the table view) Filtering, sorting, pinning potential matches via checkbox, leaving notes Principles Matchmaking is betting, and everyone can play matchmaker Empower matchmakers Give them the UI and tools to be effective Public dating profiles with high information drive better crowdsourced decisions Kickstart a flourishing ecosystem of fun secondary dating markets The hope is that by doing the main matchmaking through markets, people will be more willing to create lots and lots of secondary markets on aspects of their dating lives. And they will be hilarious and super engaging E.g. Will we kiss tonight? Where will we go for our date? Will our relationship last two weeks? Will he propose this year? How many children will we have by 2030? Privacy where possible (Not 100% on this yet) Dating profiles won’t by default be linkable and shareable. You can only find them in the table with everyone else Allows people to feel freer to include more about themselves Dating profiles will not by default be linked to your Manifold account. Can use a pseudonym Encourage evolving community sophistication at matchmaking Matchmakers will learn what questions to ask daters (comment section on dating profile) Daters will fill in more information over time based on what is helpful With DM’s (private 1:1 chat), traders can ask about character flaws too sensitive to broadcast publicly
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
Someone will marry a person they found using the app

Are there a time limit for this?

Someone will successfully find a partner from it that last at least 6 months

Are there a time limit for this? Until Manifold.love become defunct?

It will no longer be actively developed by March 2024

Is the deadline Feb 28 or March 31?

bought Ṁ125 Someone on the manif... NO

@gregrosent I wrote the option and I meant Feb 29. I believe the original close date was March 1st.

A broadcasted reality dating show will reference Manifold Dating (by 2/1/24)

What caused this to resolve yes?

@wasabipesto I would guess Bet On Love - I don't remember the specific reference, but I'd be shocked if there wasn't a reference.

@BenjaminCosman Was it "broadcasted" though? It also happened after the cutoff date. James mentioned in a comment that he missed that: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/what-will-be-true-of-the-manifold-d#4ay2z4xdb3s

@wasabipesto It was incorrectly resolved, as James said below:

Oops should have resolved NO on "A broadcasted reality dating show will reference Manifold Dating (by 2/1/24)" since it happened Feb 10th...

Unfortunately manifold doesn't currently support re-resolving unlinked multiple choice answers.

I've added it to the list of answers to be re-resolved once support is implemented:

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1191630325797896293

Its user base will be > % women than traditional Manifold Markets (n/a if data is non-existent)

It's pretty close, but I think regular manifold wins with greater % women.

From Manifold Markets Google Analytics:

Manifold Love profiles

If an end date wasn't specified, I used Feb 14th, unless it obviously wouldn't make sense (e.g. that someone finds a partner that lasts 6 months).

Oops should have resolved NO on "A broadcasted reality dating show will reference Manifold Dating (by 2/1/24)" since it happened Feb 10th...

@JamesGrugett Is the close date on feb 15 accurate? ie will these options resolve on that date or will it be extended

For gender ratio, the home page is currently showing 176 people identifying as women, 689 men, 5 trans man, and 42 trans women.

People interested in Manifold Love, you are underrepresented in adjacent market, come lend your voice

Users will be able to 'boost' their profiles to highlight for community matchmaking (by 12/1/23)

This is a good idea!

bought Ṁ10 of Users will be able t... YES

@jskf Oh just noticed the date on it

Aella will resolve a market YES by EOY 2024

Now that the markets are no longer about just 6month long relationships, and the new markets have options for going on 1 date, 2 dates etc, how will this resolve?

bought Ṁ400 of It will be more popu... YES

@firstuserhere I can N/A I guess

Well, I'm not sure. The question was just about a market. Maybe the market failed to predict we would add more markets

Someone will go on an in-person date

This can resolve YES already

@epiphanie_gedeon And also the one "before December"?

@Eliza Yep

A market will resolve YES before June 1st

I assume this excludes questions that resolved before this option was added? (Also commenting so that the timestamp is available.)

Will I be able to button-click my way into a 500 error on manifold.love right now?

Here we go

@MilfordHammerschmidt yeah all the original bugs I found are gone, or at least no longer produce 500 errors

More related questions