In my blog post on what I learned in a year of building a coding agent, I list several forecasts, which I've added to this market.
Read my post:
https://jamesgrugett.com/p/what-i-learned-building-an-ai-coding
I considered assigning my own percentage forecasts to each of them in the article, but it seemed a little cluttered. I'll add them here:
80% - The multi-agent paradigm will win
60% - “Live learning” will be standard
70% - Coding agents will flip the initiative
80% - Coding agents will close the loop
50% - Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market
50% - xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality
60% - The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important
See also:
https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-ai-agents-be-able-to-code-a-sm