In my blog post on what I learned in a year of building a coding agent, I list several forecasts, which I've added to this market.

Read my post:
https://jamesgrugett.com/p/what-i-learned-building-an-ai-coding

I considered assigning my own percentage forecasts to each of them in the article, but it seemed a little cluttered. I'll add them here:

80% - The multi-agent paradigm will win
60% - “Live learning” will be standard
70% - Coding agents will flip the initiative

80% - Coding agents will close the loop

50% - Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

50% - xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality
60% - The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

See also:
https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-ai-agents-be-able-to-code-a-sm

• Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality', the creator has specified that model quality will be judged based on performance on benchmarks.