In my blog post on what I learned in a year of building a coding agent, I list several forecasts, which I've added to this market.
Read my post:
https://jamesgrugett.com/p/what-i-learned-building-an-ai-coding
I considered assigning my own percentage forecasts to each of them in the article, but it seemed a little cluttered. I'll add them here:
80% - The multi-agent paradigm will win
60% - “Live learning” will be standard
70% - Coding agents will flip the initiative
80% - Coding agents will close the loop
50% - Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market
50% - xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality
60% - The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important
See also:
https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-ai-agents-be-able-to-code-a-sm
Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality', the creator has specified that model quality will be judged based on performance on benchmarks.
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@JamesGrugett I’d guess this is a mildly contrarian take relative to consensus. I’m curious why you think xAI will gain the lead?
@Ziddletwix Most compute, most hardcore team, best trajectory (although Google's trajectory is pretty good too).
I actually met some guy from xAI and was impressed by just how much they are grinding. I simply don't see how any other org can catch them.
@KJW_01294 lol. I think this is the most objective question of the bunch -- the best model will score highest on the benchmarks. And it would need a "sizable" lead. If you're not ok with any ambiguity, then don't bet, but I think the resolution will be obvious.
Also I've only spoken to that guy once like 3 months ago.
@JamesGrugett
> Most compute, most hardcore team, best trajectory (although Google's trajectory is pretty good too).
I actually met some guy from xAI and was impressed by just how much they are grinding.
lmfao - i wish there was a way to short codebuff