AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026
23
10kṀ9556
2026
79%
Coding agents will close the loop
72%
Coding agents will flip the initiative
67%
“Live learning” will be standard
63%
The multi-agent paradigm will win
56%
The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important
49%
Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market
30%
xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

In my blog post on what I learned in a year of building a coding agent, I list several forecasts, which I've added to this market.

Read my post:
https://jamesgrugett.com/p/what-i-learned-building-an-ai-coding

I considered assigning my own percentage forecasts to each of them in the article, but it seemed a little cluttered. I'll add them here:

80% - The multi-agent paradigm will win
60% - “Live learning” will be standard
70% - Coding agents will flip the initiative

80% - Coding agents will close the loop

50% - Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

50% - xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality
60% - The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

See also:
https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-ai-agents-be-able-to-code-a-sm

  • Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality', the creator has specified that model quality will be judged based on performance on benchmarks.

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@JamesGrugett I’d guess this is a mildly contrarian take relative to consensus. I’m curious why you think xAI will gain the lead?

@Ziddletwix Most compute, most hardcore team, best trajectory (although Google's trajectory is pretty good too).

I actually met some guy from xAI and was impressed by just how much they are grinding. I simply don't see how any other org can catch them.

what would convince you to change your mind? feels like there could be a biased resolution if you’re IRL acquaintances with the team

@KJW_01294 lol. I think this is the most objective question of the bunch -- the best model will score highest on the benchmarks. And it would need a "sizable" lead. If you're not ok with any ambiguity, then don't bet, but I think the resolution will be obvious.

Also I've only spoken to that guy once like 3 months ago.

bought Ṁ200 NO

@JamesGrugett
> Most compute, most hardcore team, best trajectory (although Google's trajectory is pretty good too).

I actually met some guy from xAI and was impressed by just how much they are grinding.

lmfao - i wish there was a way to short codebuff

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