Who will manifold choose to win in random 1V1 presidential election matchups
16
1kṀ564Jan 1
79%
Sam Altman V Jeff Bezos
77%
Gavin Newsom V Kamala Harris
68%
Benjamin Netanyahu V Ron Desantis
62%
55%
Destiny V Jasontheween
41%
Marjorie Taylor Green V Matt Gaetz
27%
Adolf Hitler V Joseph Stalin
24%
Vladimir Putin V Xi Jinping
20%
Vladimir Putin V Donald Trump
20%
An auto veto stamp V an auto sign pen
17%
A paperclip maximizing AGI V a mana maximizing AGI
The first person is yes the second person is no. Please format all your answers the same way. I will start making polls 2 weeks from now and they will each last a week. I won't make all of them in two weeks so be warned.
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One is fine but I would prefer if this market didn’t have many involving Trump and Biden as Strutheo already made markets for them
There's a chance that a mana maximizing AGI might keep people around to bet against. A paperclip maximizing AGI gives us no hope.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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