What will be true about Mitch McConnell’s replacement as the republican senate leader
What will be true about Mitch McConnell’s replacement as the republican senate leader
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1.6kṀ7086resolved Nov 13
Resolved
YESWhite
Resolved
YESOver 6 ft tall
Resolved
YESMale
Resolved
YESNamed John
Resolved
YESThey will be from a state where the Republican nominee for president wins by a margin of 15% or more in 2024.
Resolved
YESHas 2 or more children
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NOThey will still be in their first Senate term.
Resolved
NOThey will be from a major swing state (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina)
Resolved
NOThey will be from a state that votes for the Democratic nominee in the 2024 election.
Resolved
NO70 or older
What will be true about the next republican leader in the senate please add answers.
If any answer turns out to be controversial I will resolve to poll
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answered1y
White
bought Ṁ50 White YES1y
Currently, all the options in my market are white, so "NO" on this should be lower than the "Other" option on mine.
answered1y
They will be from a major swing state (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina)
bought Ṁ10 They will be from a ... NO1y
Now that I think of it, If he's retiring in November, then a lot of these states are are guaranteed not to have any Republican Senators by then. And Georgia and Arizona don't even have a senate election, so even if he doesn't get replaced until the next term, they can't possibly have Republican Senators unless something happens to Warnock Or Ossoff that gives Kemp the ability to replace them.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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