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MANIFOLD
OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027
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Dec 31
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Will OpenAI report a model has achieved >=20% on OpenAI-proof QA before 2027?

Internal-only models count. If OAI ceases to report or regularly test frontier models on this benchmark before achieving >=20%, I will resolve N/A. If the benchmark is substantially changed in a way that appears to change its difficulty substantially--e.g. to track performance on stronger models--I will N/A. If the benchmark is changed in a way to only correct label or statement errors (say <33% of them), that's ok and I will resolve normally.

c.f. https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-5-5/internal-research-debugging-evaluation

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