In 2025, what 2019-2022 work of AI safety will I think was most significant?
#AI Safety#Effective Altruism#Change My Mind
11
50
แน€880
2025
18%
Other
15%
Eliciting Latent Knowledge https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technical-report-eliciting-latent-knowledge
14%
Discovering Agents https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/XxX2CAoFskuQNkBDy/discovering-agents
13%
Induction heads https://transformer-circuits.pub/2022/in-context-learning-and-induction-heads/index.html
8%
Causal Scrubbing https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/JvZhhzycHu2Yd57RN/causal-scrubbing-a-method-for-rigorously-testing
6%
Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820
6%
Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI Feedback https://www.anthropic.com/constitutional.pdf
5%
Mechanistic Anomaly Detection https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/vwt3wKXWaCvqZyF74/mechanistic-anomaly-detection-and-elk
5%
Infra-Bayesian Physicalism https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gHgs2e2J5azvGFatb/infra-bayesian-physicalism-a-formal-theory-of-naturalized
3%
The Sharp Left Turn https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/v55BhXbpJuaExkpcD/p/GNhMPAWcfBCASy8e6
2%
2022 MIRI Alignment Discussion https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/v55BhXbpJuaExkpcD
1.8%
Other Not Listed Here
1.3%
Optimal Policies Tend to Seek Power https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.01683

Works to be considered include Arxiv papers first appearing in this time window, Lesswrong posts, and paper-like posts (mainly to include Anthropic papers). This time window includes both 2019 and 2022. 'Significant' here means was contributed the most to progress towards AI alignment and AI safety. This is obviously very subjective.

If I were to answer this question for papers 2016-2019, possible answers would have included, among others, 'AI safety via debate', 'The off switch game'.

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None of those.

@Lauro Is this intended to include the heuristic arguments work?

@JacobPfau For the purposes of this question I'll include the associated Arxiv paper under the "Mechanistic Anomaly Detection" option.

@JacobPfau ah yeah I agree it makes sense to include heuristic arguments here!

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