Will homes in Colorado be cheaper in summer 2023 than summer 2022?
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resolved Jun 13
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I would like to move to Fort Collins, and buy a home for the first time. Should I rush it, or delay as long as I can? Home values in Fort Collins have risen dramatically over the past two years: https://www.zillow.com/fort-collins-co/home-values/ But, the Fed is raising interest rates which raises the cost of a mortgage, and poor affordability is causing sales of houses to dramatically slow. Eventually this could lead to price declines: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/29/business/economy/mortgage-rates-housing-market.html This market resolves positively if the Zillow Home Price index for Fort Collins in May 2023 is lower than the most recent data from May 2022, adjusted for overall 12-month CPI inflation as of May 2023: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/ (Obviously there are many additional considerations than this that apply to my personal decision of when and whether to buy. But this seemed like a good way of operationalizing the question for Manifold Markets.) Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
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I read an essay claiming that the inflation adjusted cost of buying a house in Canada has been flat for the last several decades despite the huge increase in inflation adjusted prices, because mortgage interest rates have come down so much that they've cancelled out the rise in prices. Maybe the total mortgage cost would be a better way of framing the question. I'd be interested in seeing that analysis for some US markets.

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