Resolving N/A to give everyone their Mana back since charitable donations are ending march 1st

@Jacknaut That seems pretty un-called for to me. People can sell their mana if they want to extract it, and there was no reason for traders to expect an N/A resolution even if the overall value of mana decreased.

Is this market different from others in some way? Should all previous bets be N/Aed and voided?

@Conflux Can we still flag improper resolutions?

@Conflux I should have been more clear - I'm leaving the site, so I figured it'd be better to resolve N/A rather than abandon it. My apologies.

@Jacknaut Oh. I suppose perhaps? Thanks for the clarity.

btw for those who think the probability is higher than 33%, I've got a YES limit order open for 300 mana.

@Jacknaut lower*

I have also opened the same market, but with subjective criteria:

I've updated the description of this market. Most notably changed from traders' potential expectations is that I've specified a 2-month period being required to be higher than the average of Sept1-Dec31 2022, given that there appears to be a decent amount of variation for some months (notably July).

I've opted to use only foxnews and cnn because they seem to have the largest sample size of results (from those that I've sampled, which is very few), and the most stable trends.

If nobody has any specific suggestions to add, what do you all think about updating the description's resolution criteria to be one of the following?

(a) if Google Trend's news search has at least 1 peak that is 50% higher by the end of Summer 2023 than the average of Sept1-Dec31 2022,

(b) If the number of search results for "Covid"/"Coronavirus"/etc on Google for a specifc set of news domains (tbd) such as cnn.com returns 50% more results for any 1-month period before the end of Summer 2023 than for the average of Sept1-Dec31 2022

Does anyone have qualms with the ~50% number?

Does anyone care if I update the title to be "by summer" instead of "in summer" to match thecurrent description? I don't particularly care resolve the market YES if there's some spike in late winter/early spring if presidential candidates haven't started campaigning yet, but late spring seems like a possibility given dates of historical campaign announcements.

@Jacknaut I think tying it to specific media outlets makes more sense, if you just go with search trends you may end up picking up a genuine new Covid wave rather than media coverage. In fact Google did exactly this years ago to help predict flu outbreaks https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Flu_Trends

@jonsimon Thanks for the input! Any thoughts on the percentage amount?

Given that I haven't received a lot of other feedback yet, I'll probably give it a week or so more and update the description.

My goal is to make a market to predict an influx of media/political coverage of COVID, not necessarily covid itself. So while we could bet on whether the rates rise X%, that's not quite what I'm looking for. The easiest objective criteria I could think of is whether the White House or WHO declares/extends a public health emergency for it.

Perhaps another method would be to search Google News for articles between specific date spans on a select number of news sites (CNN, MSNBC, FOX, WAPO etc) for "COVID", and take the raw number of results for the past ~4 months, and compare to the ~4 Summer 2023 months.

What do you all think?

@Jacknaut Perhaps Google Trends could be useful here?

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&gprop=news&q=Covid