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Will US life expectancy in 2075 be 100 or above?
38
Ṁ1kṀ3.6k
2079
64%
chance

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Pace check for 2075: from 79.0 in 2024 (CDC) to 100 is 21 more years in 51 years, about 0.41 a year, roughly two and a half times the US pace of 1980 to 2010 (about 0.17 a year) sustained for half a century, and no country has ever been above the mid-80s. Period life expectancy is computed from one year's death rates at every age, so 100 would need death rates at every age cut by far more than half. This is the horizon where the drug pipeline could actually show up, though: the first lifespan trials of anti-aging drugs are in dogs (TRIAD, Loyal's STAY study), reading out around 2029 to 2031; a drug that passes there and then a human lifespan trial (about 21 years from enrolment at 65) would have roughly 25 years of use before 2075. That makes the dog results the first real update for this market. The arithmetic with sources (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2

Perhaps unhealthiness of lifestyles will expand to consume any surplus from new medical technology. Picturing the world of Warcraft episode of South Park

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Life expectancy at birth for a newborn born in 2075?