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Surprised the market is already closed, expected for it to be open for a few days to wait and see if Hong will request a recount.

@JamesBrownNRnn nbc called the winner

@Jack1 You do understand that candidates can still request a recount.. even if news broadcasters call a winner right?

@JamesBrownNRnn yes

And do you understand the market can be re resolved if in that very very very unlikely case the result was changed?

I don’t want to hold up peoples mana for no reason

@Jack1 Fair enough!

My only regret is that I didn't put more on No to Hong!

It's funny that Hong is against thanksgiving...

I'm going to be spending my winnings on Kalshi over her lost on buying me a early thanksgiving dinner in August.🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳

@JamesBrownNRnn Congrats!

Half of what's left, is in Milwaukee, this is Hongover.

/Jack1/will-democrats-win-the-2026-wiscons Bet on the general election here!

Shit, this might not even go down to a recount at this point, Crowley is dominating even in the Milwaukee Mail In's.

@JamesBrownNRnn https://www.wisn.com/nowcast

@TimHu OK, seeing her speak to her supporters, she's winning me over. 🤷‍♂️

@TimHu

I think if she was running in a safe blue seat she’d have done much better. People did like her message. They got very concerned about Electability in the end.

A question I have for @Jack1 at this point is, if this election goes to a recount territory will you wait to resolve the market until the recount is complete?

@JamesBrownNRnn Why not?

@TimHu yes I’ll wait for recount

@TimHu What do you mean?

@JamesBrownNRnn Sorry, I just meant I thought he should wait for the recount.

@TimHu Kk, I think Hong is going to win at the end of the night, the rest of the votes are mail in ballots where Hong is going to dominate, but at the same time I still think it's going to be close enough where it will go down to a recount and Crowley can over turn it.

At the same time if Hong wins the primary with only 40% of the vote, and because of a technicality (Crowley wasn't really a candidate 1 month ago) will the democratic establishment really go behind her or will they call for her to drop out?

This race can get quite interestingly real fast.

@JamesBrownNRnn I don't understand your "drop out" prediction. That doesn't seem likely to me unless some kind of real allegation of wrongdoing surfaces, beyond just bad takes.

@TimHu I can just see a strong call for the Democratic Establishment to drop out, if polling goes 10+ points in the Republicans favor. If 1 month from now Republicans are winning so overwhelmingly, where even Francesca Hong is struggling with fundraising, it could quite possibly happen.

@JamesBrownNRnn On the race result here, I take the point about the 25,000 Milwaukee Co. mail-in ballots outstanding. But I'm also seeing a similar number of total votes outstanding in smaller counties Crowley is currently winning by 10+ points. There are a lot of rural voters in Wisconsin (though most are Rs).

@TimHu Idk, right now the race is looking very 50/50, that's why I said this is for sure going to a recount, disregarding a bizarre scenario.

@JamesBrownNRnn I only just noticed it's possible to bet on the outcome live over at /Jack1/will-abdul-el-sayed-and-francesca-h

@TimHu 25% chance for Hong to win is actually pretty fair though, there's not much to win in that market.

@JamesBrownNRnn I'm seeing there's no automatic recount, but a candidate can request one (and it's free to them if the margin is under 0.25%).

@TimHu Yeah, I know.

I believe the election is going to be decided by under 0.25% either way.

@JamesBrownNRnn The final Milwaukee batch is going to be delayed another hour or so. Good night.

@TimHu Well you're leaving in a point where I'd say the odds are 90/10 in favor of Crowley. There's still a way for Hong to win, but it's overwhelmingly in favor of Crowley.