Will Split Tickets Senate Model have any of these races shifted significantly in democrats favour on election day?
3
Ṁ1kṀ204Nov 3
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Resolves YES, if at 6pm ET on November 3 2026, any of these races listed in the photo below, have Democratic odds improved by 25%. Must be at that time on election day, if they shift 25% and then go back down before election day, it doesn’t count.
‘Improved by 25%’ means +25%. Eg. From 1% to 26%.
For example, if Montana had Democrats at 26%, or Florida had democrats at 35%, then this would market will resolve yes.
Only races included in the screenshot below count for this market.
Check out the model here: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/split-ticket-2026-midterms-model
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