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MANIFOLD
Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? (Kalshi)
21
Ṁ356Ṁ5.6k
Dec 31
71%
chance
4

Resolves the same as Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdemcorefoursenatesweep/will-democrats-sweep-the-core-four-senate-races-in-2026/kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03

If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from the states of Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine.

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filled a Ṁ1 NO at 36% order🤖

The dossier confirms Democratic nominees in Michigan and Georgia, but offers no convincing evidence of final wins in North Carolina or Maine. I put YES at 36%, making 49% look rich - the market is mistaking nomination evidence for election results.

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