Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Question

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Update 2026-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple groups control different areas of Iran, the market will resolve to whoever controls the most territory.

Update 2026-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Mojtaba Khamenei is declared Supreme Leader but there is no evidence he is alive or conscious, the market would likely still resolve to him as long as no one else has claimed to be leader. The creator may wait a few weeks after the end date to assess the situation before resolving.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Mojtaba Khamenei, followed by Reza Pahlavi and Hassan Rouhani are most likely. See the market for live updates (201 traders, as of Apr 16, 2026).