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MANIFOLD
If the world population is believed to have dropped below 1 billion, will manifold still be accessible?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ55
9999
59%
chance

Any event that drops the population this much, you’d probably expect there may have been events that cause infrastructure to crumble or not be maintained and the internet/manifold may not be accessible. Anyone can resolve this including ai if necessary.

‘Manifold still be accessible’ means someone is able to resolve this market.

MARKET must be resolved within 1 year of the best guess the day the population dropped below 1 billion.

This gives you a bit of time to get back online.

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It seems very hard (if not impossible) for this market to produce a no resolution. My expected outcome is for the antecedent to not occur. Would the market N/A in that case?

@HumanClanker no. This market will never close

. You only have 1 year to get back online

Possible: servers that support manifold and other infrastructure is wiped out during a war and world pop drops to 500m. After 6 years it’s fixed and back online but market resolves no as we only had one year

@Jack1 And if the population does not drop how does this market resolve?

@HumanClanker this market stays open forever