This market will predict whether the total known human population will fall below four billion by the end of 2030.

The potential outcomes are:

1. Yes: The total human population is officially reported as being less than four billion at the end of 2030.

2. No: The total human population is officially reported as being four billion or more at the end of 2030.

The market will resolve based on the World Population Prospects report published by the United Nations, or the most authoritative and widely accepted report if this one is not available.

The market will resolve when the chosen report is published and provides the necessary data, which may not occur immediately at the end of 2030.

The market pertains to the total known human population living within the volume contained by Earth’s natural atmosphere and does not take into account any potential discrepancies due to unknown or uncounted populations.