Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the following conditions:
YES: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027, AND Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear officially appoints a registered Democrat to fill the vacancy. An official appointment is defined as Governor Beshear signing an executive order or certificate of appointment naming a registered Democrat, regardless of whether that appointment is subsequently challenged, blocked by courts, or if the individual is successfully seated in the U.S. Senate.
NO: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before January 3, 2027, but Governor Beshear does not officially appoint a registered Democrat (e.g., if he appoints a Republican, an Independent, or makes no interim appointment at all, allowing the vacancy to proceed directly to an election).
N/A: If Mitch McConnell does not vacate his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027.
1,000The end of McConnell’s term is 6 months away. If he doesn’t vacate/die soon then there probably isn’t enough time to bother contesting the appointments law. And Beshear strikes me as somebody who will sue first, rather than blatantly violate the law up front and wait to be sued in return.