Resolves based on
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, on December 24, 2026 (Christmas Eve), Mitch McConnell's Class II U.S. Senate seat representing Kentucky is officially vacant. It will resolve to NO if the seat is occupied by Mitch McConnell or any successor who has been officially sworn in to fill the seat by that date.
A vacancy exists if Mitch McConnell has died, resigned, been expelled, or otherwise officially vacated his office before December 24, 2026, and no successor has been officially sworn in and seated in the U.S. Senate to replace him by 11:59 PM EST on December 24, 2026. If Mitch McConnell remains the sitting Senator for Kentucky as of December 24, 2026, this market will resolve to NO.
The resolution of this market will be verified using the official website of the U.S. Senate (https://www.senate.gov/) or the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Just a moment... ). Major, reputable news organizations (such as the Associated Press or Reuters) may also be used as verification sources if official government websites are not updated in a timely manner.
Background
Mitch McConnell announced in February 2025 that he would not seek re-election in the November 2026 midterms, planning instead to complete his term, which officially ends on January 3, 2027.
In April 2024, Kentucky's legislature enacted House Bill 622, which stripped the Governor of Kentucky of the power to make temporary gubernatorial appointments in the event of a U.S. Senate vacancy, instead requiring a special election. If McConnell's seat is vacated before his term naturally expires, the seat could remain vacant until a special election is organized and won, or until the next term officially commences. Concern over McConnell's health has grown following his hospitalization in mid-June 2026.
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