Democratic Supermajority in the US Senate this decade?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ2102029
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the Democratic caucus in the United States senate has 60 seats or more before December 31 11.59pm ET 2029. This includes independents caucusing with Democrats.
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bought Ṁ200 NO
easiest path is
2026:
- flip NC1 (48)
- flip ME (49)
- flip TX (50)
- flip AK1 (51)
- flip IA1 (52)
- flip NE and Osborn caucuses with dems (53)
- flip SC (54)
- flip KS (55)
2028:
- flip NC2 (56)
- flip WI (57)
- flip OH (58)
- flip IA2 (59)
- flip AK2 (60)
FL is an alternate option in 2028 but i expect it to be less likely than any seat listed here
the 2026 outcome is already like 20% to happen, but flipping three R+10 seats (or holding in ohio's case) in a presidential cycle is borderline impossible. this should be <3% although it's not a good use of mana to bet it to that level
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