Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on Tesla's closing stock price on NASDAQ:

• Tesla hits $400 first: Resolves YES if Tesla closes at or below $400 before hitting $500

• Tesla hits $500 first: Resolves YES if Tesla closes at or above $500 before hitting $400

• Tesla hits neither $400 nor $500 before EOY 2025: Resolves YES if the market closes on December 31, 2025 without either threshold being reached

Only one answer can resolve YES. Resolution uses trading hours price history. After hours doesn’t count

Background

As of early December 2025, Tesla shares were trading around $430, placing the stock between both price targets. Tesla's 52-week range is between $214.25 and $488.54, meaning the stock has already approached the $500 level this year. Year to date, Tesla is up roughly 6.5% to 11% in 2025.

Analyst sentiment is mixed. Some bullish analysts maintain targets of $475 to $600, while consensus targets cluster around $383-$418, implying downside from current levels. Tesla stock faces pressure from European and China concerns, with a high-profile short seller calling shares "ridiculously overvalued".

Considerations

The market has only ~30 trading days remaining in 2025. Tesla's recent volatility and the wide range of analyst price targets reflect significant uncertainty about near-term catalysts, including full self-driving rollout, robotaxi deployment, and competitive pressures in key markets.