Tesla stock is currently flirting with the $500 level, making this a tight call. The market resolves YES if Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) closes at or above $500.00 on any trading day in 2025. The market resolves NO if the stock never reaches this level on close by December 31, 2025.

TSLA reached its all-time high on Dec 17, 2025 with the price of 495.28 USD, falling just short of the $500 threshold. The share price is flirting with the psychologically loud $500 level, while Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $500. Analysts disagree on one core question—how much of Tesla's future autonomy and robotics should be priced in today, with price targets ranging from $247 (UBS) to $551 (Canaccord), with Deutsche Bank at $500.

Tesla is expected to report Q4 delivery figures on January 2, positioned as a "fork in the narrative": will the market punish a delivery miss, or continue to look through it toward robotaxi/Optimus milestones. With only days remaining in 2025, the stock's proximity to $500 makes the outcome highly dependent on near-term market sentiment and any year-end trading activity.