Resolution criteria

Tesla stock is currently flirting with the $500 level, making this a tight call. The market resolves YES if Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) closes at or above $500.00 on any trading day in 2025. The market resolves NO if the stock never reaches this level on close by December 31, 2025.

Check closing prices at Yahoo Finance TSLA or NASDAQ TSLA.

Background

TSLA reached its all-time high on Dec 17, 2025 with the price of 495.28 USD, falling just short of the $500 threshold. The share price is flirting with the psychologically loud $500 level, while Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $500. Analysts disagree on one core question—how much of Tesla's future autonomy and robotics should be priced in today, with price targets ranging from $247 (UBS) to $551 (Canaccord), with Deutsche Bank at $500.

Considerations

Tesla is expected to report Q4 delivery figures on January 2, positioned as a "fork in the narrative": will the market punish a delivery miss, or continue to look through it toward robotaxi/Optimus milestones. With only days remaining in 2025, the stock's proximity to $500 makes the outcome highly dependent on near-term market sentiment and any year-end trading activity.