Will Donald Trump attempt to implement mass deportations within his first month in office?
65
1kṀ15k
Feb 22
96%
chance

  • Update 2024-25-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Executive order

    • Policy statement

    • Lobbying for relevant legislation

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@JStein is this market using a nonstandard definition of “Mass Deportations” or “executive orders” etc. or is it just waiting until the 21st to resolve in case they’re all rolled back? If it’s a nonstandard definition, both you and the traders get better outcomes if everyone knows what the relevant definitions are.

Afaik it’s not really in question that DJT’s ICE is going after people far more aggressively than previous admins.

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@JStein Can / should this resolve yes based on

https://www.vera.org/explainers/trumps-week-one-orders-on-immigration-law-explained

Trump's actions fast-track deportations by using tools that bypass immigration judges.

The executive order on interior enforcement and a following Federal Register notice from DHS expand the application of expedited removal—a process that allows DHS to detain and deport someone on an accelerated timeline without a hearing before an immigration judge—to the maximum extent permitted under law. The government may now rapidly deport someone accused of entering the United States without permission if that person cannot affirmatively demonstrate that they have been continuously present in the United States for two years, which is challenging to prove given how quickly these removals can happen.

A January 23 DHS memo also guides ICE officials to use expedited removal for people were lawfully paroled into the country using the Biden administration’s now-defunct CBP One app (more on this below) and the Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela program. The executive order on interior enforcement also seeks to revive the use of stipulated removal— a form of summary removal in which immigrants, often coerced, waive their right to a court hearing.

filled a Ṁ1,000 YES at 91% order

Why isn't this up at 99%?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn2p8x2eyo
Since taking office on 20 January, President Donald Trump has announced a flurry of immigration-related executive orders, paving way for a widespread effort to crack down on undocumented migrants in the US.

In more than 21 actions, Trump has moved to overhaul parts of the US immigration system, including how migrants are processed and deported from the US.

The White House has since publicised some of these efforts. On Friday, the new White House Press Secretary shared images of deportation flights being carried out by military cargo planes.

define "attempt", plz. executive order? public statement? deportation count threshold? revoking TPS? congress approved funding?

@DiegoZamalloaChion Defined as an executive order, policy statement, or lobbying for relevant legislation

What’s the argument for YES here? I feel like he will be bogged down by congress

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