Will Israel deploy Iron Beam defense before end of Mar 2024?
Will Israel deploy Iron Beam defense before end of Mar 2024?
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450Ṁ3685resolved Apr 1
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Resolves Yes if Israel/U.S. come out with an official statement. Multiple top news sources confirm the use of Iron Beam or death/destruction is caused and confirmed to from using Iron Beam on the field.
No ambiguous information from single sources will be considered. This has to be clear and globally accepted that it was Iron Beam and not something else.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.