Will these leaders lives ever be ended by assassination? | Manifold

Will these leaders lives ever be ended by assassination?

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Basic

45

Ṁ7.2k

Sep 13

1D

1W

1M

ALL

32%

Volodymyr Zelenskiy

26%

Vladimir Putin

20%

Andrés Manuel López Obrador

19%

Bola Tinubu

17%

Kim Jong-un

16%

Alberto Fernándes

14%

Cyril Ramaphosa

13%

Narendra Modi

11%

Donald Trump

11%

Benjamin Netanyahu

10%

Tayyip Erdoğan

10%

Olaf Scholz

8%

Xi Jinping

6%

Daniel Radcliffe

6%

Ursula von der Leyen

6%

Emanuel Macron

6%

Kamala Harris

3%

Joe Biden

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@JALALPOEHLMAN you may wanna extend this out a bit

bought Ṁ10 Volodymyr Zelenskiy YES

Zelensky less likely than Putin?

Putin will forever be an oligarch.

Zelensky will need to be protected for the rest of his life, even though through most of the rest of it he won't be in power.

I don't think Russia will stop trying just because Zelensky turned 80. I'm giving that guy a 70% I think, not that I like that.

bought Ṁ50 Joe Biden NO

Does coughing in Biden count as an assassination attempt?

Can you clarify the question you’re asking: Will they be assassinated ever, or by the close date?

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+45% 1d50% chance

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-32% 1d18% chance

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+15% 1d42% chance

Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?

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-30% 1d20% chance

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Will any head of state or head of government of a UN member country be assassinated in 2024?

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Will any presidential candidate be shot at or assassinated before the end of the election? (Attempted or successful)

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Will there be an attempt to assassinate either Vance or Walz before the next inauguration?

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Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?

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Will any head of state or head of government of a UN member country be assassinated in 2024?

Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?

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